避险情绪推动国际金价创两周来新高
避险情绪推动国际金价9日创下近两周来新高,避险连续第二个交易日收报于每盎司1300美元之上。情绪分析人士普遍认为,推动美元走软、国际高全球经济前景不佳、创两多国央行大举购入储备黄金是周新去年底以来金价持续走高的主要原因。
9日,避险纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的情绪6月黄金期价比前一交易日上涨6.4美元,收于每盎司1308.3美元,推动涨幅为0.49%,国际高收盘价创下3月27日以来新高,创两今年迄今累计涨幅达2.1%。周新
去年第二季度开始,避险国际金价进入了一轮多年来罕见的情绪连续下行调整期,下跌周期长达6个月。推动直到去年底,得益于美联储加息预期降低、美股波动增加,黄金才走出一轮大涨行情,去年12月单月涨幅超过4%。
无论是去年第二季度开始的大跌,还是去年底开始的大涨,推动国际金价变化的主要因素还是黄金和美元的“跷跷板效应”,即美元涨则黄金跌、美元跌则黄金涨。
受美联储2018年四次加息推动,美元去年一路走强,衡量美元对六种主要货币汇率的美元指数去年全年累计涨幅约4.6%。但今年初以来,美联储态度发生突然转变,市场普遍预计美国今年将不再加息。美联储加息预期改变是导致美元走软、黄金走强的主要原因之一。
黄金作为避险资产,其价格走势也和经济风险息息相关,经济风险升高时投资者往往会买入黄金来避险。去年底以来黄金持续走强,也意味着市场对经济风险的担忧加大。
国际货币基金组织(IMF)9日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》说,受全球贸易局势紧张、金融环境收紧、政策不确定性上升等多重因素影响,全球经济增长从去年下半年开始减速。IMF预计,2019年全球经济增长3.3%,比今年1月份的预测低0.2个百分点。
IMF首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特表示,虽然全球经济有望持续增长,但仍然面临不少下行风险,包括贸易政策不确定性犹存、英国无协议“脱欧”风险加剧、市场信心恶化可能导致全球金融环境收紧等。
美国总统特朗普9日在社交媒体推特上发文介入美国和欧盟的航空补贴之争,并威胁对价值约110亿美元的欧盟输美产品加征关税,也加剧了投资者对全球贸易紧张局势继续升级的担忧。
此外,自去年以来全球央行持续买入黄金,也是导致黄金价格不断走高的原因之一。世界黄金协会发布的统计显示,全球央行去年买入651.5吨黄金,较2017年暴增74%。
花旗银行全球大宗商品负责人埃德·莫斯表示,全球多家央行大举买入黄金,主要是为了令外汇储备资产更加多元化,并降低对美元的依赖。IMF近期发布的数据也印证了这一趋势:截至2018年第四季度,各经济体央行持有的外汇储备中美元资产占比降至61.69%,连续第三个季度下降。
美国投资银行高盛预计,全球央行对黄金的需求将持续推动金价上涨。高盛预计,未来12个月内国际金价将上涨至每盎司1450美元。
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